STATEMENT BY THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL

114^TH WTO COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE
24-26 NOVEMBER 2025

The following submission, dated 20 November 2025, is being circulated at the request of the International Grains Council (IGC).

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1  MARKETING YEAR 25/26: VERY GOOD SUPPLY ACROSS THE COMMODITIES!

1.  At 2,430 million tonnes, world total grains output is forecast to rise by 5% in 2025/26, with year/year increases for all grains. The larger global harvest will more than compensate for the tightest opening stocks in ten seasons, boosting overall supply by 3%, to an all-time peak. Increases for food, feed and industrial uses are envisaged to push total consumption to a new high of 2,400 million tonnes (+2%). Global stocks of grains are set to build for the first time since 2021/22, placed 5% higher year/year, at 619 million tonnes, led by a marked upturn in exporter inventories. After falling last year, trade will grow again, seen totalling 442 million tonnes (+4%). But constrained by soft market prices, total harvested wheat area for 2026 is projected to drop slightly, to about 220.7 million hectares, potentially a seven-year low.

2.  World soyabean output is forecast at around 426 million tonnes, representing a slight year/year contraction but well ahead of the recent average, including a potentially record outturn in Brazil. With consumption seen at a new peak on gains in Asia and the Americas in particular, inventories could tighten, by around 5 million tonnes year/year; within the total, major exporters' reserves are predicted at 21 million tonnes (-1%). Gains in demand for derivative products are expected across feed, food and industrial market segments, chiefly in Asian markets and the three major exporters. Again boosted by Asian buying, trade is projected at a high of 187 million tonnes (+2%).

3.  Global rice output is forecast fractionally higher year/year in 2025/26, bolstered by modest gains in key exporters. Against the backdrop of heavy supplies, world uptake is seen climbing by 1% on food sector gains, while combined end-season reserves are set to rise, including in the five majors. Trade could increase further at 61.3 million tonnes in 2026 (+4%) on solid interest from importers in Asia and Africa. Total deliveries to sub-Saharan African destinations are forecast to rise to 22.0 million tonnes (+3%) owing to continued population growth.

4.  In the Council's first formal supply and demand outlook, forecasts for dry beans production and consumption in 2025/26 are seen little-changed year/year, with fundamentals largely shaped by developments in Asia, notably India. After expanding solidly in the prior year, trade is predicted to contract slightly in 2026, but with Chinese arrivals likely to continue to trend up. Separately, trade in all pulses is forecast to decline by 8% year/year in 2025, linked to softer demand for dry peas and lentils.