STATEMENT BY THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL
113TH MEETING
OF THE WTO COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE
25-26 SEPTEMBER 2025
The following submission, dated
22 September 2025, is being circulated at the request of the
International Grains Council (IGC).
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1 Marketing year 2025/26: strong rebond for grains trade
1.1 Cereals
1.1. Led by upward revisions for wheat and barley, the forecast for world
total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2025/26 is boosted to
2,412 million, up by 4% y/y (year-on-year). Despite unusually small
carry-in stocks, the record crop will lift total supply above 3,000 million
tonnes for the first time ever. The projection for total consumption is up too,
at 2,395 million, mostly on an uprated feed estimate (wheat and maize).
Taking into account larger than previously estimated opening stocks, the figure
for world carryover inventories (aggregate of respective local marketing years)
is raised to 606 million. Owing to projected stronger wheat import demand,
the Council's trade estimate is lifted for a second month in a row, to 438 million
tonnes.
1.2. The world wheat crop is forecast to be the largest on record, with
strong yields more than compensating for a modest reduction in acreage. Amid
projected larger arrivals to Asia and Africa, wheat trade is forecast to
rebound by 5%, to 206.9 million tonnes. The Russian Federation is expected
to remain the largest exporter, but the early-season setback in deliveries may
cap full‑year shipments, seen at 43.4 million tonnes (45.0 million),
with much also resting on floating export duties and exporter margins.
1.3. World Maize Production is expected to rise by 5%, including solid
gains in the US and Argentina. With a larger acreage just about offsetting a
downgraded yield figure, the Council's production forecast is slightly higher
m/m, at a record 423.9 million tonnes (+12%) for USA Maize production.
Global Maize trade is forecast to increase by 3% in 2025/26 (Jul/Jun), to 191.7 million
tonnes, boosted primarily by predicted larger shipments to Far East Asia, South
America and Europe. Although China may expand purchases, final volumes will
depend on harvest results, relative prices and government efforts to balance
the market.
1.2 Soybean
1.4. At almost 429 million tonnes, the world soyabean outturn is
projected near-unchanged y/y as the first reduction in acreage in six years is
potentially offset by improved (trend) yields. With US harvesting now underway,
the Council's forecast for production is little-changed y/y, at 117.0 million
tonnes (118.3 million). Global soybean import demand is predicted to
expand by 2% y/y in 2025/26 (Oct/Sep), reaching a high of 184.6 million tonnes,
bolstered by firmer demand from importers in Asia, led by China, and Africa.
This should more than compensate for a further softening of interest from
Argentina, while a much improved rapeseed harvest could see EU processors buy
less. Leaving China aside, deliveries to other destinations in Asia are also
expected to contribute to growth in trade, with shipments to Pacific Asia
(excl. China) pegged at 18.4 million tonnes (17.8 million), Near East
Asia at 9.5 million (9.4 million) and South Asia at 5.0 million (4.7 million).
1.3 Rice
1.5. In 2025/26, world milled rice output is tentatively seen at a record
of 544 million tonnes (+1%), assuming modest gains in average yields.
Acreage will likely remain broadly steady y/y, at 171.9 million hectares,
including a near-peak in the major exporters, at 74.2 million hectares. In
Pakistan, recent heavy rains and flooding likely trimmed prospects,
particularly in the key basmati producing province of Punjab. The crop could
potentially be modestly smaller y/y, at 9.7 million tonnes (-1%). Assuming
continued strong buying interest from African importers, paired with a predicted
rebound in Pacific Asian demand, rice global trade is projected to advance to a
fresh high (peak) of 59.9 million tonnes (+2% y/y). India will likely
remain by far the leading exporter, as sizeable purchases by buyers in Africa
potentially underpin shipments at a record of 23.4 million tonnes (+2%).
1.6. The Council's outlook for world rice production in 2025/26 is
unchanged m/m but, due to elevated carry-in stocks, supplies are lifted from
previously. Together with a marginal downgrading of consumption, this feeds
through to a 3 million tonnes m/m increase in carryovers, pegged at an
all-time high. Trade is projected steady m/m, at around 60 million tonnes
(+2%).