STATEMENT BY THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL

The following submission, dated 18 June 2025, is being circulated at the request of the International Grains Council (IGC).

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1  New Harvest 2025: Starting with good auspice but still uncertainties on the demand side 

1.  Prospects for the next grain harvest remain broadly favorable, although an unusually dry winter and early spring has reduced yield potential in parts of Near East Asia. Including upgrades for the Americas, the global crop projection is boosted by 2 million tonnes, to a record 2,375 million. Tied to a slightly reduced figure for feed, forecast consumption is trimmed m/m, to 2,372 million tonnes. Closing stocks are placed 4 million tonnes higher than before, at 585 million, on upgraded outlooks for wheat and maize. Leaving the trade policy aside, the trade projection is raised to 428 million.

1.1  Wheat

2.  Boosted primarily by an anticipated recovery in Europe, the global outturn is forecast to increase by 1% in 2025/26. At 806 million tonnes, production could be the largest ever, including sizeable crops in Argentina, Canada, India, and the European Union.

3.  The forecast for world wheat carryovers in 2025/26 is forecasted at 262 million (269 million for 2024/25) and the smallest in nine years. While the annual decline is chiefly tied to drawdowns in Asia, projection for key exporters' stocks climb modestly at 64.7 million tonnes and above the previous year as well as the five-year average.

4.  Global trade is placed 2.4 million tonnes higher at 203.4 million (+5% year to year). The bulk of the projected increase stems from potentially rebounding deliveries to Asia because of reduced crops in that region, including Bangladesh, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Projected imports by Türkiye, used mostly for processing and re-exports, including to Iraq, are also lifted m/m.

1.2  Maize

5.  The next global outturn is forecast to be the largest ever, placed 4% higher y/y, at 1,277 million tonnes with a strong rebound in US production (+5.2% at 397 million tonnes) and upgraded outlooks for Brazil, Uruguay, the European Union and Zambia. Trade is projected to increase by 1.0 million tonnes in 2025/26, to 185.7 million. This trend is based on increased shipments to North Africa, Far East Asia and South America but a reduced flows to sub-Saharan Africa. China is predicted to maintain an overall small market presence, with imports seen at 7.5 million tonnes, more or less matching the annual TRQ.

1.3  Soybeans

6.  The 2025/26 global output is tentatively predicted at a peak (+2%) at 428 million tonnes. Given the backdrop of solid demand from local processors and international buyers, Brazilian farmers are expected to boost plantings by +3% once again, albeit less pronouncedly than in past years. Firmer demand for soya products across feed, food and industrial sectors are set to underpin record processing. While shipments to China are seen little-changed y/y, larger deliveries to other destinations in Asia, as well as to Africa, should support expanded trade (+1%).

1.4  Rice

7.  With fieldwork in key producers still some time away, global rice production is seen expanding further in 2025/26, to a fresh peak at 541 million tonnes, including gains in China and the major exporters. The total consumption is set to advance on expanded food demand and the major exporters' reserves would be well above 50 million tonnes. Trade in 2026 is seen rising by 2% y/y at 60.2 million tonnes, bolstered by greater food requirements from sub-Saharan Africa. It is predicted to rise to a peak of 22.3 million tonnes (+2%) and purchases by Near East Asian buyers also seen increasing, to 8.3 million (+6%).

1.5  Pulses

8.  In the Council's first formal projections, world chickpeas output is seen contracting in 2025/26, while total use is predicted to rise across the forecast period. With the next trade year around seven months away, prospects for shipment flows in 2026 are especially tentative; at 2.9 million tonnes (‑3%), volumes are set to stay above average. Separately, total trade in all pulses in 2025 is forecast to contract by 7% y/y, chiefly on reduced flows of dry peas and lentils.