Statement by the International Grains Council

111^th meeting of the WTO Committee on Agriculture
24-25 March 2025

Submission by the International Grains Council (IGC)

The following submission, dated 20 March 2025, is being circulated at the request of the International Grains Council (IGC).

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1  NEW FORECASTS FOR 2025/26

1.1.  The first full set of projections for 2025/26 total grains point to an overall increase in output, led by maize, but with advances too, for wheat and barley. With production gains (+3%) only partly countered by a low level of opening stocks, a 1% increase in total supply is anticipated. Despite a rise in consumption, with most of the growth for feed and industrial use, carryover inventories are projected to edge higher, buoyed by an accumulation in the major exporters. Trade is expected to rebound, with the 2% y/y upturn but remaining well below earlier peaks.

1.2.  In the Council's first formal soybean outlook for 2025/26, a record outturn (+2%) is anticipated but tied by marginal area gains. Further gains in total use (+4%) and inventories are likely. With Brazilian suppliers predicted to account for two-thirds of world shipment flows, trade is projected to rise by 2% to a fresh high.

1.3.  Following on from a year of record production and consumption, gains on acreage and trend yields, rice global output is predicted to expand to a high in 2025/26. Growing populations in key consuming regions are set to underpin expanded total use, while firmer demand from buyers in Asia and Africa could see trade increase to a record of 59 million tonnes in 2026. India is set to remain the dominant exporter. A modest uplift in inventories is anticipated, chiefly on accumulation in China.

1.4.  After declining in the prior year, global dry peas production could increase in 2025/26 on a rebound in Russian output, with uptake also set to recover. Following an anticipated marked contraction in 2025 on softer demand from South Asia, trade is predicted to hold steady in the next calendar year.

WORLD ESTIMATES

Figures may not add due to rounding. All calculations are based on unrounded figures.

a)           Wheat and coarse grains.

b)           Argentina, Australia, Canada, European Union, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Ukraine, United States of America.

c)            Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, United States of America.

d)           Argentina, Brazil, United States of America.

e)           India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States of America, Viet Nam.

2  IGC/IMPROVING REPORTING OF RICE TRADE

2.1.  The IGC Secretariat set up a working group of interested countries to establish an accepted definition for Japonica rice to apply for a HS code for the commodity.

2.2.  Rice is a highly segmented commodity, with numerous grades and varieties traded on world markets. Nevertheless, all rice can be categorised into two distinct groups, namely Indica (long grain) and Japonica (short/medium grain). These two groups of rice have very different price points and little price transference between them, due to distinctive consumer preferences. Due to the lack of a dedicated six-digit code within the Harmonised System (HS), there is currently no means to comprehensively track global trade in Japonica rice.

2.3.  At the moment, there are four HS codes for rice: un-milled paddy rice (HS100610), partly‑milled brown rice (HS100620), milled rice (HS100630) and 100% broken rice (HS100640). The lack of a standardised HS code for Japonica rice can pose some challenges in monitoring the global rice market. Some exporters do provide data for Japonica shipments through an extended (8‑10) digit HS Code, yet not all do. Moreover, while some origins can be assumed to exclusively export Japonica due to the composition of their local production, others produce both Indica and Japonica, and would likely export a mix of the two, but no clear break down is provided.

2.4.  In addition, there is no standardisation on the definition of Japonica between countries using the extended 8-10 digit HS codes. The introduction of a standardised six-digit HS code to enable the monitoring of trade in Japonica rice would significantly improve global market transparency and may aid both food security efforts and global trade discussions. However, some challenges exist in creating such a code, including the way that trade in rice is largely conducted as a processed product, as well as finding agreement for an international definition of Japonica rice.

2.5.  The objective of the working group is to make a proposal for discussion within the UNWCO ahead of the next revision of the HS code in 2033.

3  ESTABLISHING A NEW DASHBOARD FOR NET IMPORTING COUNTRIES AND TRADE MONITORING

3.1.  Based on the data collected on FOB prices, real time shipping, freight rates and IGC monthly forecasts, and with the support of the delegation of Algeria, the IGC has developed a dashboard dedicated to soft wheat and durum wheat.

3.2.  The objective of this dashboard is to select the most relevant information for a net importing country in order to increase the resilience of its food security strategy, including the role of trade.

3.3.  Five main pillars have been elaborated:

-_             Monitoring the export program and available surplus from the main suppliers of this net importing country;

-_             Calculating the exposure to grains market volatility;

-_             Estimating the cost of the commodity imported;

-_             Assessing the remaining stocks available and the grains en route (real time shipping data);

-_             Keeping track of trade related policy decisions affecting the availability of grains from the main importing countries.

3.4.  The dashboard will be updated weekly with IGC estimates incorporated on a monthly basis.

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