Background Document - WFP Submission to WTO's
111th Committee
of Agriculture Meeting
Submission
by the World Food Programme (WFP)
The following submission, dated 10 March 2025, is being circulated at
the request of the World Food Programme (WFP).
_______________
1 GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY SITUATION
1.1 Food security situation
1. In 2024, 343 million people were estimated to be acutely food
insecure across 74 countries with WFP operational presence and where data
is available. The number of acutely food‑insecure people is nearly 200 million
above pre-pandemic levels.[1]
2. The largest deteriorations in 2024 were observed in Nigeria and
Sudan, while the situation in some countries, including Ukraine and Ethiopia,
improved.
3. WFP and FAO warn that between November 2024 and May 2025, acute food
insecurity is likely to deteriorate further in 16 hunger hotspots. Of highest
concern are those with catastrophic conditions – Haiti, Mali, Palestine, South
Sudan and the Sudan.[2]
4. In the Sudan, Famine (IPC Phase 5) has been classified for 10 areas
across the country for the December to May 2025 period. 17 additional areas are
at risk of Famine. Most affected are North and South Darfur and the Nuba
Mountains. In Al Jazeera and Khartoum people might suffer similar conditions,
but insufficient data inhibited analysis for hard-to-reach areas.
638,000 people are projected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) between
December 2024 and May 2025, even before the lean season. In total, 24.6
million people in the Sudan are estimated to face high levels of acute food
insecurity during this period – an increase of almost 40% since the same period
in 2023 and more than tripling numbers from 2022 before the start of the conflict.[3] With the lean season, this
number could increase even further, if the situation does not improve. There
are now 12.4 million forcibly displaced since April 2023, 8.8 million
people of these are internally displaced. The conflict has also had severe
implications for regional food and nutrition security, with more than
3.3 million people forced to flee to neighbouring countries, mainly to
major food-crisis countries including Chad and South Sudan.[4]
5. In early November, the Famine Review Committee (FRC) warned about a
strong likelihood that famine was imminent in areas within the northern Gaza
Strip, due to the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation. Even before
that alert, the population classified in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5)
was expected to nearly triple between November 2024 and April 2025 reaching
345,000 people, with the risk of Famine for the entire Gaza Strip
persisting as long as conflict continues and humanitarian access remains
restricted. About 1.9 million people (91% of the analysed population) across
the Gaza Strip are projected to experience Crisis or worse levels of acute food
insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) including 876 000 people (41% of the
analysed population) in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 1.9 million people (90%
of the population) are internally displaced, many of them multiple times – some
more than 10 times.[5] The conflict has damaged
or destroyed the assets and infrastructure essential to people's survival,
leading to a collapse of food, health, and water systems. The local economy has
contracted to less than one sixth compared to 2022.[6] On 15 January, a
ceasefire was announced, which has the potential to substantially improve
humanitarian access and food security.
6. Pockets of populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are projected
for 2025 in South Sudan (63,000 people)[7] , Haiti (6,000 people)[8] and Mali (2,500 people).[9]
7. An estimated 44 million people across 47 countries are estimated to
be in Emergency or worse levels of acute food insecurity (IPC/CH Phase 4 and
above, including severely food insecure based on CARI) in 2025 and require
immediate emergency assistance to save lives and livelihoods.[10]
8. ― Reduced funding for
WFP operations in ongoing food crises can have dramatic effects for the
affected populations. Since 2023, WFP has been forced to either reduce the
number of beneficiaries or ration sizes in many countries, including in major
emergencies. Research results covering Afghanistan, Bangladesh (Cox's Bazar),
Malawi (Dzaleka Refugee Camp), and Syria revealed that the cuts significantly
reduced both the quality and quantity of food intake during the initial months
following the reductions. Households exhausted various coping mechanisms, with
children and women being particularly affected. Community relationships
deteriorated, and limited livelihood opportunities led some to consider migration.[11]
2 CONFLICT AND DISPLACEMENT
9. Conflict remains a main driver of hunger in most of the world's food
crises. 65% of acutely food insecure people in 2024 live in fragile or
conflict-affected situations. All five countries where catastrophic conditions
are projected for 2025 are experiencing high levels of armed violence.[12]
10. Between 2013 and 2023, the number of state-based armed conflicts
sharply increased about more than 50%.[13]
11. One in eight people worldwide was estimated to be exposed to armed
violence in 2024, and conflict level have almost doubled compared to five years
ago. The increase is driven by the beginning or restarting of three very large
conflicts— Ukraine, Gaza, and Myanmar — coupled with continued violence in many
other countries — including Sudan, Yemen, and Sahel countries.[14]
12. By mid-2024, 123 million people were forcibly displaced, including
72.1 million people internally displaced by conflict and violence.[15] UNHCR estimates that
forced displacement has increased further since June 2024.
13. The conflict in the Sudan continues to displace people within the
country and across borders at an alarming magnitude and pace, making the Sudan
one of the largest and fastest-growing displacement crises in the world. More
than 12.8 million people have been forcibly displaced due to the outbreak of
conflict in April 2023. The vast majority, almost 8.9 million people, are
displaced internally. 3.7 million people have been displaced to neighbouring
countries, the large majority being Sudanese refugees moving to Chad and Egypt,
and South Sudanese returning to South Sudan.[16]
3 CLIMATE
14. Extreme weather events continue to exacerbate hunger and food
insecurity. The El Niño event that has influenced weather patterns since
mid-2023 concluded in mid-2024. A La Niña event has emerged in January 2025
and is expected to persist through the first quarter of the year. Exceptionally
high global temperatures throughout the year have made 2024 the warmest year on
record (WMO).
15. El Niño's impact has been particularly severe in southern Africa,
leading to a regional scale drought and major shortfalls in staple cereal
production. Major food security impacts will be felt across the region until
early 2025. In the Horn of Africa, although El Niño-driven heavy rains have
helped mitigate the effects of prior droughts, they have also caused widespread
flooding and displaced many communities.
16. During the 2024 rainfall season, the Sahelian region and the Sudans
have experienced exceptional flooding, impacting millions of people. Several
Asian countries, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar, have
experienced extensive flooding, while tropical storms have recently impacted
the Philippines and Honduras. El Niño-induced irregular rainfall and extreme
heat have severely impacted subsistence farming in Central America, especially
Guatemala.
17. Even prior to its official declaration, La Niña-like patterns have
already started to emerge across several WFP regions, signaling potential
shifts in weather patterns that could have significant impacts. One of the
primary concerns is the escalating drought situation in the Horn of Africa.
Additionally, there are growing concerns about below-average rainfall across
Afghanistan, Central Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. These conditions
could lead to reduced crop yields, limited pasture availability, and increased
water scarcity
18. La Niña could bring improved rainfall to Southern Africa, aiding
recovery from the recent severe drought. However, forecasts indicate La
Niña-like effects with uncertain rainfall patterns, posing dual risks of
drought or extreme weather, including flooding and heightened cyclone activity,
potentially affecting crop production and communities.
4 ECONOMICS
19. The global economy continues to stabilize and is projected to grow
by 2.7% in 2025, the same rate as the last two years. However, global growth
prospects are below their 2010-19 average and insufficient to drive sustained
economic development. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside and
include high policy uncertainty, shifts in trade policy, geopolitical tensions
and extreme weather events.[17]
20. Growing debt-service burdens constrain economic activity in many
low-income countries. About half of low-income countries are in, or close to,
debt distress.[18] Annual refinancing needs
for low-income countries are estimated to exceed USD 60 billion in
2024 and 2025, more than three times the long-term average.[19]
21. This leaves many developing countries with impossible decisions
between servicing their debt or servicing their people. 3.3 billion people live
in countries that spend more on interest payments than on health or education.[20]
22. Food prices on international markets remain 26% above pre-pandemic
levels, despite having fallen below where they were just before the war in
Ukraine started.[21]
23. While world markets for basic foodstuffs are adequately supplied,
they remain vulnerable to disruptions from extreme weather events, geopolitical
tension and policy changes, which could tip supply and demand out of balance.[22]
24. Domestically, food inflation continues to be stubbornly high in
dozens of countries. In South Sudan and the Sudan food prices have more than
doubled over the last year[23]. Over the last five years,
food prices have doubled or more in 26 countries.[24]
25. Weak currencies have contributed to the rise in domestic food prices
in recent years. In the last 12 months, 16 currencies have lost more than
15% of their value, and as many as 38 currencies have lost more than a quarter
of their value since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.[25]
5 FOOD INSECURITY AND DRIVERS IN NET
FOOD-IMPORTING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
26. NFIDCs are home to 69% of acutely food insecure people (238 million).[26]
27. According to the latest Global Report on Food Crises, 44 of the 76
NFIDCs have experienced a food crisis in 2023. The primary driver of acute food
insecurity in these countries were economic shocks (17 countries), weather
extremes (14 countries) and conflict and insecurity (13 countries).
28. In countries where conflict and insecurity are the primary drivers,
the highest number of people – 108 million – experience acute food insecurity.
In countries where economic shocks and extreme weather conditions are the
primary drivers, 61 million and 55 million people, respectively, face acute
food insecurity.
29. 17 of the 22 countries (14 countries and two regional clusters
comprising eight countries) identified in the latest FAO-WFP Hunger Hotspots
report as likely to see a deterioration in food security between November 2024
and May 2025 are NFIDCs. Among these, four NFIDCs – Haiti, Mali, South Sudan,
and Sudan – have been identified as hotspots of highest concern, carrying the
most severe deterioration warning. Additionally, Chad, Mozambique, Myanmar, and
Yemen have been classified as hotspots of very high concern.[27]
30. Many NFIDCs rely heavily on international markets for their food
supplies. 35 NFIDCs import more than 50% of their cereals. Among these, 21
countries import more than 80% of their cereal supplies. Ten LDCs source more
than 50% of cereals from global markets, with 7 of them importing more than 80%.[28]
31. Currency depreciation makes imports, typically priced in US dollars,
more expensive in local currency. Currencies of seven NFIDCs have lost 15% or
more of their value within the last year. Five of them even saw their currency
lose at least 30% in value year-on-year.[29] Compared to before the
COVID-19 pandemic, the currencies of 21 NFIDCs have lost 25% or more of their
value, 11 even more than 50%.[30]
32. Elevated food prices on global markets and substantially weaker
currencies compared to the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic keep the cost of
importing food relatively high for many NFIDCs. Price swings challenge
import-dependent poor countries.
33. 22% of NFIDCs (17 countries) currently experience annual food
inflation of 10% or more. In two NFIDCs, food prices have even increased by
upwards of 50% over the last year. In South Sudan and Sudan food price doubled
over the last year.[31] Over the last four years,
food prices have doubled in 14 NFIDCs.[32] This threatens access to
food, especially for those barely able to afford enough to eat in normal times.
6 SUPPLY CHAIN AND PROCUREMENT
34. In 2024, WFP procured in total 1.97 million mt of food from 96
countries valued at USD 1.40 billion. Since the approval of WFP's
Local and Regional Food Procurement Policy in 2019, WFP has increased
local and regional procurement as a tool to support and protect food systems. In2024,
59% of the food commodities were procured from local and regional sources.