Background Document - WFP Submission to WTO's
110th Committee
of Agriculture Meeting November 2024
Global food security situation
SUBMISSION BY THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME (WFP)
The following submission, dated
20 November 2024, is being circulated at the request of the World
Food Programme (WFP).
_______________
1 FOOD SECURITY SITUATION
1. In 2024, 309 million people are estimated to be acutely food
insecure across 71 countries with WFP operational presence and where
data is available. This is a slight decrease compared to the 333 million
acutely food insecure in 78 countries in 2023, but still an increase of 160
million people compared to early 2020 (pre-COVID-19 pandemic).[1]
2. The decrease is due to an improvement projected for 2024 compared to
2023 in some countries, including Ukraine, Somalia and Kenya, while other
countries, including Sudan, Palestine, Chad and Nigeria are seeing
deteriorations.
3. An estimated 45.5 million people across 47 countries are projected
to be in Emergency or worse levels of acute food insecurity (IPC/CH Phase 4 and
above, including severely food insecure based on CARI) in 2024 and require
immediate emergency assistance to save lives and livelihoods.[2]
4. WFP and FAO warn that between November 2024 and May 2025, acute food
insecurity is likely to deteriorate further in 16 hunger hotspots. Of
highest concern are those with catastrophic conditions – Haiti, Mali,
Palestine, South Sudan, and the Sudan. Chad, Lebanon, Myanmar, Mozambique,
Nigeria, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen are classified as hotspots of very
high concern, where large numbers of people are facing or are projected to face
critical levels of acute food insecurity. This situation is driven by
escalating factors that threaten to deepen already life-threatening conditions.[3]
5. In the Gaza Strip, the number of people facing extreme lack of food
and starvation (IPC 5) is projected to nearly triple to around 345,000
people between October 2024 and February 2025.[4]
The Famine Review Committee has issued an alert that famine is imminent in the
Gaza Strip, amid renewed evacuation orders in northern Gaza and continuous
attacks on camps and infrastructure across the Strip.[5]
This comes as the humanitarian space and commercial supplies have been further
shrinking since September – amid a highly insecure operating environment. 1.9 million people
(90% of the population) are internally displaced, many of them multiple
times – some more than 10 times.[6]
The conflict has damaged or destroyed the assets and infrastructure essential
to people's survival, leading to a collapse of food, health, and water systems.
The local economy has contracted to less than one-sixth compared to 2022.
6. In the Sudan, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is ongoing in the
Zamzam Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) site near El Fasher, North
Darfur, and is expected to persist through October 2024. Many other areas
throughout the country are at risk of famine but insufficient data inhibited
analysis for many hard-to-reach areas. 109,000 people are projected to face
Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) between November 2024 and February 2025.[7]
In total, 21.1 million people in the Sudan are estimated to face high levels of
acute food insecurity between November 2024 and February 2025 during the
harvest season – a 20% increase since the same period in 2023. The conflict has
also had severe implications for regional food and nutrition security, with
almost 3 million people forced to flee to neighbouring countries, mainly to
major food-crisis countries including Chad and South Sudan.[8]
7. Pockets of populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) also exist in
South Sudan (79,000 people)[9],
Haiti (6,000 people) and Mali (2,500 people).
8. Reduced funding for WFP operations in ongoing food crises can have
dramatic effects for the affected populations. Already in 2023, WFP was forced
to either reduce the number of beneficiaries or ration sizes in many countries,
including in major emergencies. Research results covering Afghanistan,
Bangladesh (Cox's Bazar), Malawi (Dzaleka Refugee Camp), and Syria revealed
that the cuts significantly reduced both the quality and quantity of food
intake during the initial months following the reductions. Households exhausted
various coping mechanisms, with children and women being particularly affected.
Community relationships deteriorated, and limited livelihood opportunities led
some to consider migration.[10]
2 Conflict and displacement
9. Conflict remains a main driver of hunger in most of the world's food
crises. 65% of acutely food insecure people live in fragile or
conflict-affected situations. All five countries where catastrophic conditions
were projected for 2024 are experiencing high levels of armed violence.[11]
10. Between 2013 and 2023, the number of state-based armed conflicts
sharply increased about more than 50%.[12]
11. By mid-2024, 123 million people were forcibly displaced, including
72.1 million people internally displaced by conflict and violence.[13]
UNHCR estimates that forced displacement has increased further since June 2024.
12. The conflict in the Sudan continues to displace people within the
country and across borders at an alarming magnitude and pace, making the Sudan
one of the largest and fastest-growing displacement crises in the world. More
than 11.4 million people have been forcibly displaced due to the outbreak of
conflict in April 2023. The vast majority, 8.2 million people, are displaced
internally. Three million people have been displaced to neighbouring
countries, the large majority being Sudanese refugees moving to Chad and Egypt,
and South Sudanese returning to South Sudan.[14]
13. In the Near East and North Africa region, the ongoing conflict in
Palestine has driven unprecedented needs, with near-total displacement of the
population and an increased risk of regional spillover.
14. Acute food insecurity is expected to worsen significantly in
Lebanon, due to the intensified conflict and economic deterioration. By the end
of September, around 1 million people had been displaced, mainly from the
south of the country and Beirut's southern suburbs due to the intense conflict
escalation. The number of people facing Emergency levels of acute food
insecurity (IPC Phase 4) is expected to rise significantly over the
forecast period.[15]
3 Climate
15. Extreme weather events continue to exacerbate hunger and food
insecurity. The El Niño event that has influenced weather patterns since
mid-2023 concluded in mid-2024, with a La Niña event likely to begin and
continue through the first quarter of 2025.
16. El Niño's impact has been particularly severe in southern Africa,
leading to a regional scale drought and major shortfalls in staple cereal
production. Major food security impacts will be felt across the region peaking
from October 2024 to early 2025. In the Horn of Africa, although El Niño-driven
heavy rains have helped mitigate the effects of prior droughts, they have also
caused widespread flooding and displaced many communities.
17. Subsistence farmers' production in Central America, particularly
Guatemala, has been adversely impacted by El Niño-induced irregular rainfall
and extremely high temperatures.
18. During the 2024 rainfall season, the Sahelian region and the Sudan
have experienced exceptional flooding, impacting millions of people. Extensive
floods have also affected several Asian countries, including Bangladesh,
Pakistan, and Myanmar.
19. Large scale flooding is now affecting South Sudan, potentially
affecting up to 3 million people (OCHA). This is driven by record water levels
in Lake Victoria.
20. Ongoing record-high ocean temperatures are maintaining heightened
concerns for hurricane formation and severe storms in Central America and the
Caribbean.
21. With a potential La Niña, Southern Africa is expected to experience
improved rainfall, which could aid recovery from the previous severe drought.
However, it may also bring an increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events
potentially leading to flooding.
22. While a La Niña event has not yet been declared, La Niña-like
patterns are already in place across most areas where WFP works: of most
concern are drought conditions that will develop across the Horn of Africa,
Afghanistan and other Central Asian areas, and drier than average conditions in
the Middle East and Northern Africa region, affecting crop production and
pasture resources.
4 Economics
23. The current global economic outlook is underwhelming in both 2024
and 2025. Disruptions to the production and transportation of raw materials
(particularly oil), conflicts, civil unrest and extreme weather events have led
to lower growth expectations in emerging market and developing economies.[16]
24. Global growth remains too low to make progress on key development goals.[17]
A quarter of developing countries and over half of economies facing fragile-
and conflict-affected situations will be poorer at the end of 2024 than on the
eve of the pandemic.[18]
25. Amidst high debt levels and high costs of servicing debt, half of
low-income countries are in debt distress or at high risk thereof.[19]
Annual refinancing needs for low-income countries have tripled to about US$60
billion in 2024 and 2025.[20]
26. This leaves many developing countries with impossible decisions
between servicing their debt or servicing their people. 3.3 billion people
live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on health or education.[21]
27. Food prices on international markets remain 23% above pre-pandemic
levels, despite having fallen below where they were just before the war in
Ukraine started.[22]
28. While world markets for basic foodstuffs are adequately supplied,
they remain vulnerable to disruptions from extreme weather events, geopolitical
tensions, policy changes or shifts in other markets, which could tip supply and
demand out of balance.[23]
29. Despite slightly easing, rice prices remain elevated.[24]
30. Domestically, food inflation continues to be stubbornly high in
dozens of countries. In Argentina, Gaza and the Sudan, food prices have more
than doubled over the last year.[25]
Over the last four years, food prices have doubled in 26 countries.[26]
31. Weak currencies have contributed to the rise in domestic food prices
in recent years. In the last 12 months, 17 currencies have lost more than
15% of their value, and as many as 35 currencies have lost more than a
quarter of their value since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.[27]
5 Food insecurity and drivers in Net Food-Importing Developing
Countries
32. NFIDCs are home to 66% of acutely food insecure people (203 million).[28]
33. According to the latest Global Report on Food Crises, 44 of the 77
NFIDCs have experienced a food crisis in 2023. The primary driver of acute food
insecurity in these countries were economic shocks (17 countries), weather
extremes (14 countries) and conflict and insecurity (13 countries).
34. In countries where conflict and insecurity are the primary drivers,
the highest number of people – 89 million – experience acute food
insecurity. In countries where economic shocks and extreme weather conditions
are the primary drivers, 56 million and 53 million people, respectively, face
acute food insecurity.
35. Seventeen of the 22 countries (14 countries and two regional
clusters comprising eight countries) identified in the latest FAO-WFP Hunger
Hotspots report as likely to see a deterioration in food security between
November 2024 and May 2025 are NFIDCs. Among these, four NFIDCs – Haiti, Mali,
South Sudan, and Sudan – have been identified as hotspots of highest concern,
carrying the most severe deterioration warning. Additionally, Chad, Mozambique,
Myanmar, and Yemen have been classified as hotspots of very high concern.[29]
36. Many NFIDCs rely heavily on international markets for their food
supplies. 35 NFIDCs import more than 50% of their cereals. Among these, 21
countries import more than 80% of their cereal supplies. Ten LDCs source more
than 50% of cereals from global markets, with 7 of them importing more than 80%.[30]
37. Currency depreciation makes imports, typically priced in US dollars,
more expensive in local currency. Currencies of eight NFIDCs have lost 15% or
more of their value within the last year. Five of them even saw their currency
lose at least 30% in value year-on-year.[31]
Compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic, the currencies of 21 NFIDCs have lost
25% or more of their value, 11 even more than 50%.[32]
38. Elevated food prices on global markets and substantially weaker
currencies compared to the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic keep the cost of
importing food relatively high for many NFIDCs. Price swings challenge
import-dependent poor countries.
39. Twenty-seven percent of NFIDCs (21 countries) currently experience
annual food inflation of 10% or more. In three NFIDCs, food prices have even
increased by upwards of 50% over the last year. In Sudan food price doubled
over the last year.[33]
Over the last four years, food prices have doubled in 16 NFIDCs.[34]
This threatens access to food, especially for those barely able to afford
enough to eat in normal times.
6 Supply Chain and Procurement
40. From 1 January 2024 to 31 October 2024, WFP procured 1.7 million
metric tonnes of food from 94 countries, valued at USD 1.12 billion.
Since the approval of WFP's Local and Regional Food Procurement Policy in 2019,
WFP has increased local and regional procurement as a tool to support and
protect food systems. WFP acquired approximately 57% of the food from local and
regional sources as of October 2024.
41. Over 46% of these food purchases in terms of value and 40% in terms
of volume was from least developed countries and net food-importing developing
countries.