Background Document to THE 109^th WTO REGULAR MEETING
Committee of Agriculture (25 – 26 September 2024)

Submission by the World Food Programme (WFP)

The following submission, dated 23 September 2024, is being circulated at the request of the World Food Programme (WFP).

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1  Global food security situation

1.1  Key Messages

·_        Global hunger levels are alarmingly high.

·_        In 2024, 309 million people are estimated to be acutely food insecure across 71 countries with WFP operational presence and where data is available. This is a slight decrease compared to the 333 million acutely food insecure in 78 countries in 2023, but still an increase of 160 million people compared to early 2020 (pre-COVID-19 pandemic).[1]

·_        Conflict remains a key driver of food insecurity for most people. 65% of acutely food insecure people live in fragile or conflict-affected situations. Renewed escalation of conflicts, including in Palestine and the Sudan, worsens the food security outlook. 

·_        The number of people in catastrophic levels (IPC/CH Phase 5) of acute food insecurity is unprecedented. In the Sudan, 755,000 people, in the Gaza Strip, 495,000 people, in South Sudan 79,000 people and in Mali more than 2,500 people are projected to face death and starvation (IPC/CH Phase 5) in 2024. In the Sudan, famine (IPC Phase 5) is ongoing in the Zamzam Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) site in North Darfur. Many other areas throughout the country are at risk of famine. Also in Gaza, a risk of famine persists.

·_        WFP and FAO warn that between June and October 2024, acute food insecurity is likely to deteriorate further in 18 hunger hotspots. Hotspots of highest concern are Haiti, Mali, Palestine, South Sudan and the Sudan.[2]

·_        Acute food insecurity could be further exacerbated by funding gaps which are forcing WFP to cut rations across multiple operations.[3]

·_        Slow global economic growth, debt distress and high debt repayments, elevated international rice prices and stubbornly high domestic food inflation in many places pose risks to food security. Net food-importing developing countries (NFIDCs) are home to two-thirds of acutely food insecure people.

·_        Weather extremes are the primary driver of food hunger one in four food insecure people.

·_        The El Niño event that has dominated weather patterns since mid-2023 has ended in mid‑2024, and a La Niña event is expected to start in the third quarter of 2024, lasting until mid-2025.

·_        The El Niño led to a regional scale drought in Southern Africa with major impacts on food security felt across the region peaking from October 2024 to early 2025.

·_        Under a possible La Niña, drought is likely to affect East Africa during the coming two rainfall seasons in October-December and March-May 2025.

·_        In 2023, WFP reached 152 million people with food, cash, and commodity vouchers. For 2024, WFP plans to reach 142.6 million people. This year, WFP procured 1.41 million metric tonnes of food from 91 countries, approximately 57% of which was sourced from local and regional sources as of September 2024.

·_        WFP calls upon partners to prioritize political and diplomatic solution to strengthen peace building efforts and broaden investment for humanitarian action, while also committing to long-term multi-year solutions that address underlying causes.

1.2  Background

Conflict and displacement

·_        Between 2013 and 2023, the number of state-based armed conflicts sharply increased by more than 50%.[4]

·_        By end-2023, 117 million people were forcibly displaced, including 68.3 million people internally displaced by conflict and violence.[5]  UNHCR expects conflict-induced displacement to increase in 2024, doubling compared to 10 years ago, and further aggravating vulnerability to food insecurity of affected populations.[6]

·_        The conflict in the Sudan continues to displace people within the country and across borders at an alarming magnitude and pace, making the Sudan one of the largest and fastest-growing displacement crises in the world. More than 10 million people have been forcibly displaced due to the outbreak of conflict in April 2023. The vast majority, 8 million people, are displaced internally. 2.2 million people have been displaced to neighbouring countries, the large majority being Sudanese refugees moving to Chad and Egypt, and South Sudanese returning to South Sudan.[7]

·_        Yet, Syria holds the record in terms of sheer numbers with 13.8 million people forcibly displaced inside and outside its borders at the end of 2023.[8]

Climate

·_        Weather extremes are the principal driver of hunger for one in four acutely food-insecure people.

·_        The El Niño event that has dominated weather patterns since mid-2023 has ended in mid-2024, leading to dry conditions in Southern Africa and Ethiopia. In contrast, in the Horn of Africa, El Niño induced heavy rains while alleviating the impact of previous droughts, led to widespread flooding and population displacement.

·_        During the 2024 rainfall season, the Sahelian region and the Sudans have experienced exceptional flooding, impacting millions of people. Extensive floods have also affected several Asian countries, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Myanmar.

·_        Large scale flooding is expected to affect South Sudan in late 2024, potentially affecting up to 3 million people (OCHA). This is driven by record water levels in Lake Victoria.

Economics

·_        The current global economic outlook remains subdued, although slightly better than in previous forecasts. The World Bank expects global growth to stabilize from 2024 to 2026, but at a level insufficient to make progress on key development goals. A quarter of developing countries and over half of economies facing fragile- and conflict-affected situations will be poorer at the end of 2024 than on the eve of the pandemic.[9]

·_        Amidst high debt levels and high costs of servicing debt, half of low-income countries are in debt distress or at high risk thereof.[10]  Annual refinancing needs for low-income countries have tripled to about US$60 billion in 2024 and 2025.[11]

·_        This leaves many developing countries with impossible decisions between servicing their debt or servicing their people. 3.3 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on health or education.[12]

·_        Food prices on international markets remain 20% above pre-pandemic levels, despite having fallen below where they were just before the war in Ukraine started.[13]

·_        While world markets for basic foodstuffs are adequately supplied, they remain vulnerable to disruptions from extreme weather events, geopolitical tensions, policy changes or shifts in other markets, which could tip supply and demand out of balance.[14]

·_        Rice prices remain elevated amidst lingering export restrictions.[15]

·_        Domestically, food inflation continues to be stubbornly high in dozens of countries. In Argentina, Gaza and the Sudan food prices have more than doubled over the last year.[16] Over the last four years, food prices have doubled in 24 countries.[17]

·_        Weak currencies have contributed to the rise in domestic food prices in recent years. In the last 12 months, 20 currencies have lost more than 15% of their value, and as many as 36 currencies have lost more than a quarter of their value since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.[18]

2  Supply Chain and Procurement

·_        From 1 January 2024 to date, WFP procured 1.41 million metric tonnes of food from 91 countries, valued at USD 0.94 billion. Since the approval of WFP's Local and Regional Food Procurement Policy in 2019, WFP has increased local and regional procurement as a tool to support and protect food systems. WFP acquired approximately 57% of the food from local and regional sources as of September 2024.

·_        Over 49% of these food purchases in terms of value and 43% in terms of volume was from least developed countries and net food-importing developing countries.

ANNEX 1 – Details on WFP Purchases in 2024

Data for 2024, 1 January until 18 September 2024

a._        WFP food purchases from Least Developed Countries in 2024 

b._        WFP Food Purchases from Net food-importing developing countries (NFIDCs) in 2024

c._         WFP Total Food Procured to date in 2024.

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