Background document to the 108th WTO
regular meeting of the
Committee on Agriculture (23-24 May 2024)
Submission
by the World Food Programme (WFP)
The following submission, dated
23 May 2024, is being circulated at the request of the World Food Programme
(WFP).
_______________
1 Recent developments in global food insecurity
1.1 Key Messages
·_
Food insecurity
remains at highly concerning levels.
·_
Net
food-importing developing countries (NFIDCs) are home to 67% of acutely food
insecure people.
·_
The current
economic context poses risks to food security. These include stubbornly high
domestic food inflation in many places, debt distress and sluggish economic
growth.
·_
In addition to
economic shocks, conflict and climate crises remain key drivers of food
insecurity. Renewed escalation of conflicts, most recently in Palestine, and
the active El Niño event worsen the global food security outlook.
·_
Funding cuts
could further exacerbate food insecurity.
1.2 Background
Food security
·_
In 2024, 309
million people are acutely food insecure across 72 countries with
WFP operational presence and where data is available. This is an increase
of 160 million people compared to early 2020, before the COVID-19
pandemic.
·_
An estimated 41.5
million people across 45 countries are in Emergency or worse levels of acute
food insecurity (IPC/CH Phase 4+, including severely food insecure based on
CARI) in 2024. Without urgent life-saving action, these populations will
be at risk of falling into catastrophe or famine conditions.
·_
In Gaza, over one
million people are projected to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) between March
and July 2024, and Famine is imminent in the northern governorates. 79,000 people
in South Sudan and around 2,500 people in Mali are projected to experience
Catastrophe (IPC/CH Phase 5) in 2024. In Sudan, several areas are at
critical risk of catastrophic outcomes, and immediate action is needed to
prevent famine in certain areas during the upcoming 2024 lean season. Mali,
South Sudan and Sudan are NFIDCs.
·_
NFIDCs are home
to 67% of acutely food insecure people (208 million).[1]
·_
Funding gaps,
which force WFP to cut rations across many operations, could further exacerbate
acute food insecurity. Preliminary findings from assessments in Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Malawi and Syria indicate that in some of the countries' food
consumption has decreased in the first months after the cuts and that affected
populations respond primarily with the adoption of a range of unsustainable and
risky coping strategies.[2]
Economics
·_
Global economic
growth is expected to be slow and uneven, projected to reach 3.2% in 2024 and
2025, the same pace as 2023. This is well below the 3.8% average over the last
two decades (2000 – 2019).[3]
·_
High interest
rates and withdrawal of fiscal support in combination with the longer-term
effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, weak productivity
growth and growing geoeconomic fragmentation drive low global economic growth.[4]
·_
The economic pace
is expected to slow in emerging market and developing economies in 2024, while
increasing slightly in advanced economies. Due to the slower convergence,
differences in living standards are projected to persist longer.[5]
·_
54% of low-income
countries and 14% of emerging markets are currently in debt distress or at high
risk thereof.[6]
·_
High debt
payments leave many developing countries with impossible decisions between
servicing their debt or servicing their people. 3.3 billion people live in
countries that spend more on interest than on health or education.[7]
·_
Many NFIDCs rely
heavily on international markets for their food supplies. 31 NFIDCs import more
than 50% of their cereals. Among these, 17 countries import more than 80% of
their cereal supplies. 8 LDCs source more than 50% of cereals from global
markets, with four of them importing more than 80%. [8]
·_
International
food prices have eased substantially in 2023. However, while the FAO Food Price
Index is now far below its peak in March 2022, the index remains 18% above pre‑pandemic
levels.[9]
·_
International
rice prices are an exception to the general trend of falling food prices. The
FAO Rice Price Index recorded a 21% annual increase in 2023 mainly due to
concerns about the impact of El Niño in major growing areas and export restrictions.[10]
In January 2024, the index reached its highest level since August 2008 and has
only declined by 5% since.[11]
·_
Elevated food
prices on global markets and substantially weaker currencies compared to before
the start of the COVID-19 pandemic keep the cost of importing food relatively
high for many NFIDCs.
·_
The pandemic and
the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have led to heightened commodity price
volatility. Geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change could lead to further
market instability.[12]
Price swings challenge import-dependent poor countries.
·_
Currencies of 13
NFIDCs have lost 15% or more of their value within the last year. Eight of them
even saw their currency lose at least 30% in value year-on-year.[13]
Compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic, the currencies of 22 NFIDCs have lost
25% or more of their value, 10 even more than 50%.[14]
Currency depreciation makes imports, typically prices in US dollars, more
expensive in local currency.
·_
30% of NFIDCs (21
countries) currently experience annual food inflation of 10% or more. In four
NFIDCs, food prices have even increased by upwards of 50% over the last year.
In South Sudan and Sudan food price doubled over the last year. This threatens
access to food, especially for those barely able to afford enough to eat in
normal times.[15]
Conflict & Climate
·_
Conflict remains
the primary driver of hunger for almost half of the acutely food insecure
people in the world.[16]
·_
Seven out of ten
acutely food insecure people live in fragile or conflict-affected situations.[17]
·_
Weather extremes
are the primary driver of acute food insecurity in almost one out of three food
crisis countries.[18]
·_
An El Niño event
affects food security across the globe and particularly in Africa. Southern
Africa faces a severe drought, with national disaster declarations in Zambia,
Zimbabwe, and Malawi. Food security is expected to remain precarious until the
first quarter of 2025. Recent heavy rains in the East Africa region have
triggered widespread flooding, resulting in fatalities and displacement of
people. Due to the likely continuation of above-average rainfall, the situation
is expected to deteriorate further in the short term.