|作者：||The International Grains Council (IGC)|
STATEMENT BY THE INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL
99TH meeting of the WTO Committee on Agriculture
23-24 september 2021
"COVID-19 and Agriculture"
Submission by the International Grains Council (IGC)
The following submission, dated 10 September 2021, is being circulated at the request of the International Grains Council (IGC).
1.1. Global total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2021/22 is forecast to climb by 3% y/y, to a record 2,283 million tonnes (m t), led by new highs for maize (+75 m t year-on-year (y/y)) and wheat (+ 8 m t). Consumption is expected to grow by 2%, including gains for food (+ 12 m t y/y), feed (+ 30 m t) and industrial uses (+ 7 m t). World stocks of grains are seen contracting for a fifth consecutive year, to a seven-season low of 589 m t (- 4 m t y/y), with y/y falls for wheat, barley and millet/triticale only partly offset by slightly larger inventories of maize and rye. At 415 m t (- 12 m t y/y), global grains trade (Jul/Jun) is projected to show the first decline in three years, including smaller shipments of wheat (- 1 m t), maize (- 10 m t) and barley (- 2 m t), but an increase for sorghum (+ 1 m t).
1.2. Global soybean production in 2021/22 is predicted to rise by 5% y/y, to a high of 380 m t, on sizeable crops in the three major exporters, while an uptick in consumption is anticipated on firmer demand from China. World inventories are expected to increase, but supplies from the United States of America (US) are set to remain tight given outlooks for high local use and exports. Trade is seen up by 3% y/y on Asian demand.
1.3. Tied to bigger harvests in Asia's key producers, rice world output in 2021/22 is forecast to increase by 1% y/y, to a peak of 512 m t, with consumption and stocks predicted to edge up. While trade in 2022 is likely to be little-changed y/y, the Council expects India's sales to contract as shipments by Thailand recover amid assumed ample and competitively priced supplies.