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In responding to the complex and evolving
international dynamics, five key aspects of policy considerations need to be
included and highlighted for the new administration’s pursuit of trade and
economic strategy.
First, the "de-risking" from China for the Taiwanese industries should be accelerated through the government’s assistance. China has already demonstrated it’s willingness and ability to "weaponize" economic and trade dependencies. Reducing the space for China to manipulate and exploit these interdependencies would be a priority to reduce Taiwan’s potential risks. Particularly, the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), a framework agreement signed in 2010 with a limited tariff preference of trade(so called “early-harvest” items), has become one of PRC’s tactic to coerce Taiwan. On January 1, 2024, China began to suspend zero tariffs on 12 ECFA petrochemical products, reinstating tariffs ranging from 2% to 10%, and has indicated that it may continue to expand the suspension of ECFA early harvest benefits. The proportion of Taiwanese exports to China by using ECFA benefits has declined to 17% in 2023 from the peak of 33%, and the importance of the agreement will continue to decline in the long run due to the ongoing changes of Taiwan's economic and trade structure. However, in the short term, the export of some ECFA items, such as vinyl acetate, refined copper foil, and glass materials, will remain concentrated in China, highlighting the need for Taiwanese industries to accelerate de-risking. It is recommended that the new administration should provide policy guidance and tangible supports to assist companies wishing to reduce China's share of their exports and to develop alternative markets.
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